FPE vs Hits

Understanding the “Hits” Chart

What is going on here?

This chart isolates every at-bat that resulted in a Hit (Singles, Doubles, Triples, HRs). It categorizes them by the count:

• Green Slice (Strike): Hits that happened after the batter started down 0-1.

• Red Slice (Ball): Hits that happened after the batter started ahead 1-0.

⚠️ Why this data can be misleading

You might look at the large Green slice and think, “Throwing a strike leads to more hits!” However, this is the “Base Rate” Fallacy.

• Pitchers throw strikes about 60-65% of the time.

• Because there are significantly more 0-1 counts in a season, there will naturally be more hits coming from 0-1 counts, simply because the opportunity arises more often.

• The Reality: Even though more hits total come from 0-1 counts, the batting average in those counts is much lower than in 1-0 counts.